Ukraine Puppet State - Anastasiia Kudlenko does not work for, consult with, own shares in or receive funding from companies or organizations that will benefit from this article, and does not disclose any affiliations other than their academic appointments.
Vladimir Putin's disdain for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reached its peak on February 25 in a stunning speech, in which he referred to the Ukrainian leader as "a bunch of drug addicts and Nazis". Mr. Putin also expressed his desire to have a new regime in the country. Many wonder how he will achieve regime change and establish a harmonious government.
Ukraine Puppet State
Even before he launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, many observers called on history to understand Putin's intentions. Some have expressed concern about the possibility of a "new Yalta", referring to the 1945 Yalta conference that divided Europe. In the area of influence of the East and West. Others have raised the possibility of a new Munich, after the Munich Agreement of 1938, which would resemble a policy of appeasement.
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It is possible that Putin took inspiration from another, long-forgotten Ukrainian history, and from the playbook of the Bolsheviks. Bolsheviks represent the left-wing party of the Russian Social-Democratic Labor Party. Under the leadership of Vladimir Lenin, they seized control of the Russian government in November 1917 and later became the ruling party of the Russian Soviet and, later, the Soviet Union.
In December 1917 in Kharkiv, Ukraine's second largest city, the Bolsheviks declared Ukraine a Soviet republic and established a government. This government lacks legitimacy - earlier that year, Ukraine established the highest national authority, the Central Rada ( frame). The Rada received widespread social support and was recognized by the Russian Provisional Government that came to power as a result of the Russian Revolution in February 1917.
The problem is that the central Rada did not recognize the authority of the Bolsheviks in Ukraine after the coup d'état in November 1917. This is shown in a solemn declaration, Third Universal. Adopted by the Rada, this document established the Ukrainian People's Republic as an independent part of the Union with Russia. Ukrainian autonomy was not in the Bolshevik plan, but they knew that a direct refusal to choose The people of Ukraine will be faced with violent opposition. So they decided to create a puppet government in Kharkiv.
It is important to note that the formation of the Kharkiv government was made possible by the initial occupation of Kharkiv by the Bolshevik military. The existence of two governments in Ukraine appears to outside observers as a local war, while in fact the Kharkiv government is controlled by the Bolsheviks from Russia. The Bolsheviks eventually invaded the Ukrainian People's Republic in Kyiv, forcing the Central Rada to flee. Thai.
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Although we do not know whether Putin was inspired by the Bolsheviks to attack Ukrainian sovereignty, it is easy to see the parallels with the events of 1917.
The events of December 1917 also provide some insight into how the previous invasion was successfully sold to the majority of the Russian population.
Those who have followed the Russian media in recent months will have noted the concern of Russian officials about Ukraine's growing hostility towards the autonomous republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. Ukraine has denied Russia's accusations of military buildup in Ukraine and shelling. On the Donbas border violently.
But this matters little to Putin's domestic audience, largely under the influence of Russia's propaganda machine. A large part of the Ukrainian population is still under this influence, partly due to easy access to Russian media.
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Such domestic reasons were still important in 1917. Then, in 2022, presenting the war as an internal problem informed the world that the conflict should be managed without outside interference. Interestingly, the Central Rada was able to return to Kyiv with the support of German troops in the spring of 1918, so external players were not completely excluded.
Despite the similarities, Putin may not repeat the success of the former Bolsheviks in installing a puppet government and recognizing it outside of Russia, for at least two reasons.
First, the Ukrainian Republic in 1917 did not have a proper army. Ukraine in 2022 is a very different story. Hardened by years of war in the Donbas, where Russia is more than a supporter but not a party, Ukraine is increasingly strengthening its security institutions.
In addition, having Western intelligence about Russia's intentions allowed Ukraine to gather serious weapons and ammunition before the invasion. A growing number of self-defense units and volunteers also play an important role alongside Ukraine's armed forces. In destroying the Kremlin's plans for Blitzkrieg.
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Second, the existence of social media and the Internet has made Russia's war with Ukraine more than an internal problem. While Russia's domestic audience is still captivated, the broadcast of the war and allegations of war crimes by Russian soldiers on Ukrainian soil have made the international community unable to avoid it. Shocked to see the brutal bloodshed in the middle of Europe, people came out in their thousands to pressure their governments to support Ukraine.
Even in 1918, the Ukrainians showed that the short-term victory did not equal the success that the Bolsheviks predicted. In 2022, Ukraine will have a lot of support from the world. The more Putin continues the war, the more he will push Russia into isolation. President Vladimir Putin is confident that he can conquer Ukraine. He is already thinking about who he wants to install a pro-Russian government in Kyiv.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is apparently confident that his military will successfully invade Ukraine, and he is already thinking about the pro-Russian puppets he might install in the new government in Kyiv.
That's the overconfident plan the British government revealed to The Daily Beast this week — rightly so. Allegation that Putin is planning to promote a new regime in Ukraine that is more friendly to Russia, consisting of former Some Ukrainian politicians.
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The program, and the former politicians it relies on, are not in a good position to answer that call, analysts say. All four of the former Ukrainian politicians chosen by Russia as part of the Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych's impeachment overthrew Many of them fled Ukraine after the protests against Yanukovych's government, which made the Ukrainians Cranes are high and dry in the face of unrest.
Yevhen Murayev, the Russian man identified as their candidate to lead the pro-Russian puppet government in Kyiv, has done a lot of parroting Kremlin propaganda. He has a pro-Russian TV channel on which he appears. But what he is not a professional is being a politician: he founded a party in 2018, called Nash or "Amo" but failed to get any seats in the parliament.
One of the men that the British still recognize, Vladimir Sivkovich, did all the stupid things. The US government has indicted Sivkovich on charges related to the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) and involvement in a Russian influence operation to hand Crimea over to Russia - a move that no doubt supported the Kremlin, which illegally annexed Crimea in 2014.
Sivkovich also participated in an influence operation aimed at the 2020 US presidential election, according to US government estimates.
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Another Ukrainian identified in the plot, Mykola Azarov, was also red-flagged. Interpol issued a red notice on Azarov, the former prime minister of Ukraine from 2010-2014, in 2015. He was also involved in corruption and was accused of accepting bribes to appoint an ally as deputy prime minister.
That man, Andriy Kluyev, is also accused of being part of a Russian plot to take control of Kyiv. The former Secretary General of the Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, Mr. Kluyev, faced accusations of Involved in the massacre of many people, according to Reuters.
Kluyev's track record is worse. He is said to be involved in the payments that are the focus of the federal trial of President Donald Trump's campaign manager, Paul Manafort. (Manafort was found guilty of bank fraud and filing false tax returns. must.)
Another man accused of being part of Putin's coup plot, Serhiy Arbuzov, was paid to incite chaos in Odessa in 2014, according to the Security Service of Ukraine, SBU.
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Both the Russians and Mr. Murayev, a former member of the Ukrainian parliament, suggested that British intelligence was flawed.
Although their famous past appears to be a favorite of the Kremlin, the coup plot seems to make little sense for the political and geographical realities on the ground, putting Putin's calculations out of step with what could be a wise move, analysts said.
There is no way that the individuals named in the plan would have any level of support from the Ukrainians, according to Bill. Taylor, former US ambassador to Ukraine.
"It is possible that they will be candidates for Russia if Russia has a plan, a plan for a coup - it is - to install a government friendly to Russia," said Taylor, who said he knew the two of the former. Ukrainian politicians identified in the plan, told The Daily Beast.
West Slams Reports Of Russian Plan For Puppet Government In Ukraine
"If these people express their opinion, they can be supported by Ukraine.
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